"Rational exuberance," albeit a slight exaggeration, is nonetheless a fair characterization of the short-term outlook for the chicken market and, perhaps, even the longer-term look ahead. Favorable factors outweigh the possibilities for a less-than-upbeat situation.

USDA is tending to agree, with the department's estimated chicken production increase for this year of less than 2% and less than 1% for 2026. However, a number of other analysts expect chicken output next year to top 2% by a measurable margin. Spurring that thinking is the estimate for this fall's corn harvest. Barring the highly unlikely event that the corn crop will sustain a disaster in the next month or two, USDA sees a bin-busting record harvest driven by unprecedented high yields per acre and a surprising increase in acreage planted.

As ex-Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz used to say, "Chickens are just condensed corn."

Regarding this year's soybean crop, the outlook for the harvest is quite favorable, although not a bin-buster like corn. Soybeans are a crucial ingredient in chicken feed rations since both the meal and oil are used.

Chicken’s favorable outlook cannot overlook the current state of the beef market. America's beef cattle herd is the smallest in 75 years, in part because of drought. Foreign imports are also down, and fears about screwworm have led USDA to block livestock from crossing from Mexico to the US. All of these factors have driven beef prices to historic highs. Demand remaining strong, coupled with tighter supplies, is what pushes prices higher.

Also, there is good evidence that foodservice is on a recovery track and taking more chicken in the upward swing. Chicken sandwiches, chicken wings, salads with chicken on top, grilled chicken and kids’ chicken strips/nuggets continue to be the most popular chicken dishes, with bao, kids protein sides, risotto and tacos being the fastest growing dishes with chicken in foodservice.

But the chicken industry isn’t without its challenges, either. Labor availability, avian influenza, trade barriers, regulatory requirements and other cost variables are not to be ignored.

Bottom line, chicken continues to provide consumers who shop for eating at home and away from home with a wide variety of wholesome, healthy and affordable options.

Chicken as a snack catches on in 2025

An International Food Information Council (IFIC) survey published in July 2025 shows that 71% of Americans are actively trying to consume more protein. This has been a steady rise from 59% in 2022. According to Innova Market Insights, protein snacking is popular across generations, with most Gen Z (60%), millennial (64%), Gen X (65%), and Boomer (58%) consumers specifically looking for protein in their snacks.

Chicken marketers fully recognize that the traditional three-square meals a day continue to erode into multi-daily eating occasions. They are recognizing the consumer need for more convenient ways to eat chicken, offering individually packaged options for quick, easy, on-the-go enjoyment that are perfect for busy lifestyles.

Pre-cut portion sizes are readily positioned for cooking in microwave ovens and air fryers. Most of these offerings are fully cooked, bite sized, easily heated and snackable.

Digital-first consumers are key trend for 2026

Research presented this summer at the 2025 Chicken Marketing Summit revealed that fresh chicken buyers are increasingly turning to technology for shopping and meal preparation. The focus of the study was on understanding how generational cohorts shop for, prepare and think about fresh chicken in an era of inflation and rapidly advancing technology.*

Convenience remains a defining priority. As noted above, heat-and-serve options, microwave- and air fryer-friendly meals, and minimal cleanup were cited by younger consumers as essential. These needs have fueled growing interest in meal prep and meal kits.

Seven in 10 now shop for groceries online or via mobile app, with more than a third of consumers younger than 42 doing so weekly. The barriers to online fresh chicken purchases, such as concerns about safety in transit and delivery costs, are gradually shrinking. More than one-third of Gen Z and younger millennials are already open to buying fresh chicken online, showing major potential for digital channel expansion.

Over one-third of fresh chicken buyers report using AI for food shopping, meal planning or preparation. Meanwhile, nearly one in four are using smart appliances like refrigerators for these tasks. Seventy-three percent say they are at least somewhat interested in smart technology for planning and shopping, with the strongest interest coming from Gen Z.

*The study, commissioned by the National Chicken Council (NCC) and WATT Global Media and conducted online by Circana in June 2025, surveyed 625 US adults aged 18–67.

Monitoring MAHA

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission in September submitted to President Trump its “Make Our Children Healthy Again Strategy Report,” which identifies four potential drivers it says are behind the rise in childhood chronic disease that present the clearest opportunities for progress: Poor diet; Chemical exposure; Lack of physical activity and chronic stress; and Overmedicalization.

NCC supports the White House’s goals to address childhood health and nutrition, and we are working with FDA and USDA to accomplish them.

We are very pleased that FDA and USDA have requested data and information to help develop a uniform definition of “ultra-processed foods.”

While we will be discussing this in greater detail in our upcoming comments, we believe the term “processed” in general is misleading.  How a product is manufactured says nothing about the nutritional content of the product itself. We believe we need to move away from the “process” and focus on the “content.”

Not all processed foods are created equal. A chicken nugget — a source of high-quality protein, B vitamins, iron, and zinc — offers far more nutritional value than a snack cake or soda, yet current classification systems like NOVA risk placing them in the same category. That’s a disservice to both science and public health.

Further, chicken products may use naturally derived ingredients like vinegar or citrus extracts to ensure food safety and shelf stability. This is fundamentally different from foods high in added sugars, dyes, and artificial flavors or preservatives. Labeling them the same is misleading to the consumer and may stigmatize traditional and familiar nutrient-dense foods.

We will be encouraging the MAHA Commission to adopt a nuanced framework that distinguishes between truly ultra-processed products and those that deliver essential nutrients, like lean poultry. Considerations such as nutrient density, protein quality, and the purpose of processing (e.g., preservation versus flavor engineering) should be central to any ultra-processed food-related policy or definition.

Combined with its nutritional value, positive health benefits, popularity, versatility and affordability, chicken is poised to be a key contributor in Making America Healthy Again and a key source of protein in the upcoming Dietary Guidelines.

www.provisoneronline.com   |  october 2025